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Metal Market Report January 2023 - Week 2 Edition

January 2023 – Week 2 Edition

Gold and Silver Rebound, Look Even Stronger in 2023

Gold and Silver both closed 2022 in positive territory after spending most of the year in the red. Their recovery is due to the dollar’s sharp decline since October, falling almost 10% in the fourth quarter. That pushed silver up nearly 5% for the year and gold up fractionally. In the same period, stocks fell sharply, with the S&P 500 down almost 20%, the Dow down almost 9% and the tech-heavy NASDAQ down a huge 33%.

Year-End Summary: Precious Metals Rally to “Victory” in the Fourth Quarter

Just like a football or basketball game where the favorite team lags for three quarters only to rally for a win, gold and silver rallied in the fourth quarter to take the lead and win the game at the buzzer.  For the full year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gained 8%, but it was up over 16% through September 30. At one point it was up 26% in a 16.5-month surge from May 24, 2021, to October 10, 2022. Since then, however, the dollar index dropped almost 10 points from 113.3 to 103.5, pushing gold and silver to positive gains.

The only plus signs were in the U.S. dollar and three of four precious metals, which also means gold and silver were up in double digits in 2022 in many other currencies. For instance, gold would be up about 11% in the British pound (and the Japanese yen), and silver would be up about 4% more since the dollar disguised the strength of the precious metals in other currencies.

 

U.S. Mint Bullion Coin Sales Were Down Sharply in Late 2022, Despite Rising Prices

Despite the recently rising gold prices, only 4,000 ounces of the Gold American Eagle coins were sold in December (vs. 42,000 sold in December 2021) and no Gold American Buffalo coins were sold (vs. 10,500 sold last December).  There were 59,000 Silver American Eagles sold in December.

For the full year, Silver American Eagle sales were down 43.5%, and gold bullion coin U.S. Mint sales were down 13.3%.  Silver bullion prices were up 4.4% for the year but the Mint made Silver American Eagle sales difficult to negotiate and prohibitively expensive with delivery delays and super-high double-digit premiums of 40% or higher over spot prices. In pricing a variety of dealers, I saw wholesale prices of $33 to $35 per coin at $24 spot silver. There are far lower premiums available on other global mint silver products. Call your account representative for an array of available alternatives to Gold or Silver American Eagles, as I predict gold and silver will rise in 2023.

Later this month, I will report on how well our recommendations did in 2022 as many of our classic rare coins outperformed gold and silver.